In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2623 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakdown there led to a sell signal, but it never came to a fall. After a short period of time, the bulls achieved a breakdown and a reverse test of 1.2623, which forced them to exit short positions and open long ones. At the time of writing, I still haven't seen a sharp increase. In the afternoon, the technical picture was not revised.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, it is required:

In the absence of statistics for the UK, buyers of the pound have shown themselves, and as long as trading is conducted above 1.2623, you can count on the implementation of a buy signal. Given that there are also absolutely no statistics on the United States in the second half, there will be chances for bulls to grow. When the pair moves down, only the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2623, where the moving averages are, will give an entry point with the aim of rising to the resistance of 1.2665, formed at the end of last week. A breakout and a top-down test of this range will strengthen the chance for further recovery of GBP/USD, which will lead to new purchases and allow you to get to 1.2708. In the case of an exit above this range, we can talk about a breakthrough to 1.2756, where I'm going to fix profits. In the scenario of GBP/USD falling and no buyers at 1.2623 in the afternoon, sellers will get a chance for a larger drop in the pound to the area of the monthly low of 1.2576. They will only buy there on a false breakout. It is possible to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2535 in order to correct 30-35 points within a day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears also have every chance of further trend building, but for this you need to return to the level of 1.2623, around which trading will continue further. If the pair grows, only the formation of a false breakdown in the area of a new resistance of 1.2665 will convince traders in the presence of large sellers, which will give an entry point into short positions counting on a decline and a support test of 1.2623. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will increase the pressure on the pair, giving the bears an advantage and another entry point to sell with the aim of updating 1.2576, where I expect a more active manifestation of buyers. A longer-range target will be a minimum of 1.2535, where I will record profits. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.2673 in the afternoon, the bulls will have the opportunity to continue the upward correction with an upward movement to the resistance area of 1.2708. I will also serve there only on a false breakdown. In the absence of activity there, I advise you to open short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2756, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 19 showed a sharp reduction in long and short positions. The results of the Bank of England meeting were quite expected, and against this background, it is quite problematic to talk about the return of demand for the British pound. The soft position of the regulator, which continues to be viewed more and more with each meeting, harms the British pound, while the US dollar is in demand due to the Fed's tough position. Following the meeting, expectations that rates in the UK could be lowered much earlier only increased, which increased pressure on the British pound. The latest COT report stated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 20,680 to 102,605, while short non-commercial positions fell by 3,429 to 49,405. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 13,803.

Indicator Signals:

Trading is conducted around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2620, will act as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period – 20.
• Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.